Introduction

1. Overview
1.1 What to forecast?
1.2 Why forecast?
1.3 How to forecast?
1.4 Frequently asked questions

2. Business Cycle Analysis
2.1 Monitering the ups and downs
2.2 Collecting economic information
2.3 Business and consumer surveys
2.4 Making sense of the data
2.5 Bridge models
2.6 Final health warning
Appendix 2.1 Some useful concepts and tools

3. Real Sector Building Blocks
3.1 Business investment
3.2 Household spending
3.3 Imports and exports
3.4 Employment
3.5 Prices and wages
Appendix 3.1 Sectoral forecasting
Appendix 3.2 Comodity prices
Appendix 3.3. Semi-structural estimation of the NAIRU

4. Financial Sector Dynamics
4.1 Dealing with volatility
4.2 Short-term interest rates
4.3 Long-term interest rates
4.4 Bond prices and yield spreads
4.5 Stock prices
4.6 Real estate prices
4.7 Exchange rates
Appendix 4.1 Intergrating the financial stablity perstpective - lessons from the 2007 financial cirsis
Appendix 4.2 Technical analysis
Appendix 4.3 Country risk analysis

5. Public Finances
5.1 The macroeconomic review
5.2 The detailed approach
5.3 Long-run fiscal trends
5.4 Fiscal policy analysis
5.5 Forecasting performance
Appendix 5.1 Fiscal implications for financial sector rescues
Appendix 5.2 The fiscal response to the 2007 financial crisis

6. Medium-and Long-Run Projections
6.1 The medium run
6.2 The long run

7. Risk and Accuracy
7.1 Conceptual issues
7.2 Analysing errors
7.3 Forecaster's track record
7.4 What causes errors?
7.5 Can accuracy be improved?
7.6 Accuracy is not enough - assessing the risks around forecasts
Appendix 7.1 Measuring accuracy in practive
Appendix 7.2 Can forecasters predict severe crises?
Recent lessons

8. Policy Making and Forecasts
8.1 Economic forecasts' virues and limitations
8.2 Forecasts and macroeconomic policy
8.3 Private sector uses
8.4 Explaining the techniclities
8.5 Transparency
8.6 Science or Politics?
Appendix 8.1 A world tour of the forecasting institutions

Epilogue

Annex Ⅰ. The data
Annex Ⅱ. Time series methods
Annex Ⅲ. Macroeconomic models

Bibliography
Index