Acknowledgments ix

About the Contributors xiii

Abbreviations xv

1 Introduction

1 Book Contents and Structure 3

2 Definitions 5

Choice Awareness 5

Radical Technological Change 6

Applied and Concrete Economics 7

Renewable Energy 7

Renewable Energy Systems 8

3 Renewable versus Sustainable 9

Sustainable Energy 9

Political Reasons for Renewable Energy 10

Renewable Energy and Democracy 12

2 Theory: Choice Awareness Theses

1 Choice and Change 13

Choice/No Choice at the Individual Level 14

Choice/No Choice at the Societal Level 15

Radical Technological Change 18

2 Choice Perception and Elimination 20

Choice Perception 20

Choice-Eliminating Mechanisms 23

The First Choice Awareness Thesis 27

3 Raising Choice Awareness 28

The Second Choice Awareness Thesis 31

3 Methodology: Choice Awareness Strategies

1 Technical Alternatives 33

2 Economic Feasibility Studies 37

3 Public Regulation 41

4 Democratic Infrastructure 45

5 Research Methodology 47

4 Tool: The EnergyPLAN Energy System Analysis Model

1 Overall Considerations 51

Three Implementation Phases 53

Different Types of Energy System Analysis Models 54

Hourly Simulation Models at the National Level 59

2 The EnergyPLAN Model 61

Purpose and Application 61

Energy Systems Analysis Structure 64

Energy Systems Analysis Methodology 66

A Step-by-Step Approach to National Energy Systems Analysis 67

Sister Models to EnergyPLAN 70

3 Reflections 72

5 Analysis: Large-Scale Integration of Renewable Energy

1 The Danish Reference Energy System 76

Electrification of Transport Scenario 78

2 Excess Electricity Diagrams 79

3 Optimal Combinations of RES 86

4Flexible Energy Systems 88

Flexible Energy System 91

Flexible Energy Systems Including Electricity for Transport 92

5 Different Energy Systems 94

6 Grid Stability 97

7 Local Energy Markets 103

8 Integration of Transport 109

9 Electric Vehicles and V2G 112

10 Electricity Storage Options 119

11 Conclusions 122

Principles and Methodologies 123

Recommendations 124

6 Analysis: 100 Percent Renewable Energy Systems

1 The Los Angeles Community College District Case 129

2 The First Approach to Coherent Renewable Energy Systems 135

3 The Danish Society of Engineers' Energy Plan 143

4 Reflections 155

Principles and Methodologies 155

Conclusions and Recommendations 155

7 Empirical Examples: Choice Awareness Cases

1 Case I: The Nordkraft Power Station (1982-1983) 160

The "No Alternative" Situation 161

The Concrete Alternative Proposal 163

Conclusions and Reflections 166

2 Case II: The Aalborg Heat Planning (1984-1987) 167

The Alternatives in Question 168

Choice-Eliminating Strategies 170

Conclusions and Reflections 171

3 Case III: The Evaluation of Biogas (1990-1992) 173

The Applied Neoclassical Cost-Benefit Analysis 174

Feasibility Study Based on Concrete Institutional Economics 175

Conclusions and Reflections 178

4 Case IV: The Nordjyllandsvaerk (1991-1994) 179

The No Alternative Situation 180

The Alternative Proposal 182

Discussion of the Alternative 185

Conclusions and Reflections 186

5 Case V: The Transmission Line Case (1992-1996) 188

Shifting Arguments for the Need 189

Security of Supply 190

Concrete Technical Alternatives 192

Conclusions and Reflections 193

6 Case VI: European EIA procedures (1993-1997) 194

Implementation of the EIA Principles in Denmark 195

Example 1: The Nordjyllandsvaerk 196

Example 2: High-Voltage Transmission Lines 199

Example 3: The Avedorevaerk 200

Conclusions and Reflections 200

7 Case VII: The German Lausitz Case (1993-1994) 202

The Alternative 204

Conclusions and Reflections 208

8 Case VIII: The Green Energy Plan (1996) 209

The Design of the Concrete Technical Alternative 210

Evaluation and Comparisons 211

Conclusions and Reflections 214

9 Case IX: The Thai Power Station Case (1999) 215

The Hin Krut Power Station in Prachuap Khiri Khan 216

Official Economic Objectives for Thailand 217

The Design of a Concrete Technical Alternative 218

Comparative Feasibility Study 219

Conclusions and Reflections 221

10 Case X: The Economic Council Case (2002-2003) 223

Missing Capacity Benefits (Unfair Premises) 224

Balance of Payment, Employment, and Technological Innovation 228

Conclusions and Reflections 229

11 Case XI: The North Carolina Case (2006-2007) 231

Resource Assessment and Feasibility Study 232

Conclusions and Reflections 235

12 Case XII: The IDA Energy Plan 2030 (2006-2007) 236

Conclusions and Reflections 239

13 Summary 240

Existing Organizations Initiate Old Technology Proposals 240

Objectives of Radical Technological Change is Disregarded 241

Alternatives Must Come from Someone Else 241

Institutional Change is Essential 242

Applied Neoclassical Economics Provide Irrelevant Information 243

Concrete Institutional Economics Provides Relevant Information 243

Concrete Alternatives Raise Choice Awareness 244

Concrete Alternatives Help Identify Institutional Barriers 245

14 Conclusions 245

8 Conclusions and Recommendations

1 Conclusions 247

Choice Awareness 247

Renewable Energy Systems 250

2 Recommendations 253

100 Percent Renewable Energy Systems 254

Large-Scale Integration of Renewable Energy 255

The New Coal-Fired Power Station in Germany 256

Slowdown in Onshore Wind Power 258

Bibliography 261

Index 269